The “up only” story just hit a wall of facts. CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics company, has sent out a new alert saying that the Bitcoin market has clearly entered a bearish phase.
Traders have been hoping for months that the dip was just a break to catch their breath. Julio Moreno, the Head of Research at CryptoQuant, says that demand exhaustion is a bigger problem. Since the beginning of October 2025, the rate at which people want to buy Bitcoin has dropped below its long-term trend. In the world of on-chain analysis, when demand stops being higher than supply, price pulls things down.
The report says that this isn’t just about retail traders being scared; the “smart money” is also pulling back. Institutional interest, as seen in spot ETF flows and the “Coinbase Premium” (the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges), has dropped. The engine stops when US institutions stop buying.
What is the alarm going off for? The answer is in the moving average over 365 days.
Bitcoin recently fell below this important long-term trendline. In the past, this moving average has been the clear line between bull and bear cycles. If it stays above it, the party goes on. If it falls below it, it’s usually a “reset.”
CryptoQuant’s model looks at the current situation and compares it to the drop in demand that happened in late 2021, just before the winter of 2022.
If the bear is really in charge, where is the bottom?
According to CryptoQuant’s research, $70,000 is the main support level for the time being. This area is a psychological and technical floor where buyers might come back in.
The company says that the “Realized Price” of Bitcoin, which is the average price at which all Bitcoins last moved, is around $56,000. Bear markets have often hit their lowest point near this realized price in the past. If it drops to this level, it would be about 37% lower than the recent highs(Editor Note:Calculated from 90k ). This would be painful, but in the past, it would be one of the “mildest” bear markets on record.
CryptoQuant’s tweet:
Legal Notice: This news is written for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.
